Voice control is the ‘holy grail’ of UI interaction. You need only look at old movies and television to see that voice is indeed king. [For example, the Robinson family used voice commands to control their robot. And Heywood Floyd used voice as his means of teaching and communicating with HAL.] Today, there are many voice assistants available on the market. These include: Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, Google Assistant (aka Google Home), Microsoft Cortana, Nuance Nina, Samsung Bixby, and even the Voxagent Silvia.  But the real leaders are only now starting to emerge from this crowded market. And as of this moment, Alexa dominance in third-party voice integration is apparent.

Apple Creates The Market

Apple was the first out-of-the-gate with the Apple Siri assistant. Siri first arrived on the iPhone and later on the iPad. But since its introduction, it is now available as part of the entire Apple i-cosystem. If you are an Apple enthusiast, Siri is on your wrist (with the watch). Siri is on your computer. And Siri is on your HomePod speaker. It is even on your earbuds. And in the past six months, we are finally starting to see some third-party integration with Siri.

Amazon Seizes The Market

Amazon used an entirely different approach to entrench its voice assistant. Rather than launch the service across all Amazon-branded products, Amazon chose to first launch a voice assistant inside a speaker. This was a clever strategy. With a fairly small investment, you could have an assistant in the room with you. Wherever you spent time, your assistant would probably be close enough for routine interactions.

This strategy did not rely upon your phone always being in your pocket.  Unlike Apple, the table stakes for getting a voice assistant were relatively trivial. And more importantly, your investment was not limited to one and only one ecosystem.  When the Echo Dot was released at a trivial price point (including heavy discounts), Alexa started showing up everywhere. 

From the very outset, an Amazon voice assistant investment required funds for a simple speaker (and not an expensive smartphone). You could put the speaker in a room with a Samsung TV. Or you could set it in your kitchen. So as you listened to music (while cooking), you could add items to your next shopping list.  And you could set the timers for all of your cooking.  In short, you had a hands-free method of augmenting routine tasks.   In fact, it was this integration between normal household chores coupled with the lower entry price that helped to spur consumer purchases of the Amazon Echo (and Echo Dot).

A second key feature of Amazon’s success was its open architecture. Alexa dominance was amplified as additional hardware vendors adopted the Alexa ecosystem. And the young Internet-of-Things (IoT) marketplace adopted Alexa as its first integration platform. Yes, many companies also provided Siri and Google Assistant integration. But Alexa was their first ‘target’ platform.

The reason for Alexa integration was (and is) simple: most vendors sell their products through Amazon. So vendors gained synergies with their main supplier. Unlike the Apple model, you didn’t have to go to a brick and mortar store (whether it be the Apple Store, the carriers’ stores, or even BestBuy/Target/Walmart).  Nor did a vendor need to use another company’s supply chain. Instead, they could bundle the whole experience through an established sales/supply channel.

Google Arrives Late To The Party

While Apple and Amazon sparred with one another, Google jumped into the market. They doubled-down on ‘openness’ and interoperability.  And at this moment, the general consensus is that the Google offering is the most open. But to date, they have not gained traction because their entry price was much higher than Amazon’s. We find this to be tremendously interesting. Google got the low price part down when they offered a $20-$30 video streamer.

But with the broader household assistant, Google focused first upon the phone (choosing to fight with Apple) rather than a hands-free device that everyone could use throughout the house. And rather than follow the pricing model that they adopted with the Chromecast, Google chose to offer a more capable (and more expensive) speaker product. So while they used one part of the Amazon formula (i.e., interoperability), they avoided the price-sensitive part of the formula.

Furthermore, Google could not offer synergies with the supply chain. Consequently, Google still remains a third-place contender. For them to leap back into a more prominent position, they will either have to beat ‘all-comers’ on price or they will have to offer something really innovative that the other vendors haven’t yet delivered.

Alexa Dominance

Amazon dominance in third-party voice integration is apparent. Not only can you use Alexa on your Amazon ‘speakers’, you can use it on third-party speakers (like Sonos). You can launch actions on your phone and on your computer. And these days, you can use it with your thermostat, your light bulbs, your power sockets, your garage door, your blinds, and even your oven. In my case, I just finished integrating Alexa with Hue lights and with an ecobee thermostat.

Bottom Line

Market dominance is very fleeting. I remember when IBM was the dominant technology provider. After IBM, Microsoft dominated the computer market. At that time, companies like IBM, HP, and Sun dominated the server market. And dominance in the software market is just as fleeting. Without continually focusing on new and emerging trends, leadership can devolve back into a competitive melee, followed by the obsolescence of the leader. Indeed, this has been the rule as dominant players have struggled to maintain existing revenue streams while trying to remain innovative.

Apple is approaching the same point of transition. Their dominance of the phone market is slowly coming to an end. Unless they can pivot to something truly innovative, they may suffer the same fate as IBM, Sun, HP, Dell, Microsoft, and a host of others.

Google may be facing the same fate – though this is far less certain. Since Google’s main source of revenue is ‘search-related’ adverstising, they may see some sniping around the edges (e.g., Bing, DuckDuckGo, etc). But there is no serious challenge to their core business – at this time.

And Amazon is in a similar position: their core revenue is the supply chain ‘tax’ that they impose upon retail sales. So they may not see the same impact on their voice-related offerings. But they dare not rest upon their laurels. In candor, the Amazon position is far more appealing than the Google position. The Amazon model relies upon other companies building products that Amazon can sell. So interoperability will always be a part of any product that Amazon brands – including voice assistants. 

Only time will sort out the winners and losers. And I daresay that there is room enough for multiple ‘winners’ in this space. But for me, I am now making all of my personal and business investments based upon the continued dominance of Alexa.