5G wireless is one step closer to reality. AT&T and Verizon have made huge investments in millimeter-wave (mmWave) radio spectrum (e.g., 28GHz and 39GHz). Sprint and T-Mobile have placed their bets on existing spectrum below 6GHz (i.e., “sub-6”) radio spectrum. A huge step towards the 5G aspirations of these two camps was made yesterday when Qualcomm announced its mmWave and sub-6 antenna modules.

Now that these modules are formally available, handset designers and producers will accelerate their movement towards these pivotal 5G technologies.   Don’t expect everything to shift to 5G by the end of this year. But you should expect that handsets being developed for launch next year will begin to feature 5G capabilities.

In the meantime, expect to see niche offerings. Based upon published plans by the carriers/operators, the first products featuring 5G will probably take the form of “pucks” that will provide a “semi-fixed” wireless connection. What does “semi-fixed” mean? Simple. You won’t carry these things in your pocket; they won’t be a mobile phone. You will set them up so other devices can connect to them. I expect to see these fixed wireless solutions to start to show up in households or in the briefcases of road warriors.

Will these “hotspot” use cases dominate the residential and/or mobile office space? They will not dominate any market in 2018. I do expect to see the early adopter crowd will jump on board in the first half of 2019. But I don’t expect widespread adoption (beyond 10%) until 2019. Nevertheless, these un-tethered back haul connections will be a substantive challenge to the cable operators. Specifically, the cord-cutters (who want wireless connectivity without content bundling) will jump on these connectivity devises – assuming that the operators price them appropriately.

In the final analysis, yesterday’s announcement by Qualcomm outlines the future. And the future will be 5G. But one question remains: which team will win?

Lorin’s Prediction: The millimeter wave crowd will win in the fixed wireless challenge to cable companies. And since the mmWave build-out is starting in dense urban settings, I think that AT&T and Verizon will clean up in urban centers. For the rest of the markets, the sub-6 enthusiasts will garner more market share – until the 5G tower build-out is complete. And the sub-6 crowd will register early wins in the mobile wireless use cases.  But the real fun will begin when mmWave and sub-6 antenna modules are in every device – whether mobile or fixed. Then we will see who secures the future markets.