Apple dropped its sales bomb – and it’s a big noisemaker. According to published results, Apple sold 5.3 million iPods during 1Q05 (second quarter of the Apple fiscal year). But the thud came in the form of the revenue drops associated with the increased sales. Overall, iPod revenue per unit dropped by 16%.
Why the difference? Well, Apple didn’t provide enough information to make the reasons clear. Indeed, Apple made it a point _not_ to report where the revenue came from. So increased iPod sales and decreased revenue probably was a result of a major (and possibly unexpected) shift in iPod purchasing habits. By that, I suspect that iPod Shuffle sales were far higher than expected. That is good. But the sales were not (exclusively) incremental unit sales. Rather, iPod Shuffle purchases may very well have displaced iPod mini, iPod, and iPod Photo sales – thus damaging revenue projections. And the fact that Apple did not report the results per product in the iPod family lends credibility to that assertion.
If my speculation is correct, then Apple may be faced with the good news before the bad news. The good news is the unit sales increases. But if the sales were for the Shuffle, then the bad news is that they shifted their market towards the more commoditized end. This is good and bad. If true, expect the other flash player manufacturers to step up the competition. In this end of the market, Apple does not have a feature or price advantage – only a brand advantage.
So I expect other suppliers to ramp up competition. And I expect Apple to shoot back with something new. I expect the knee-jerk response to be some form of firmware update to provide more distinctiveness (and brand allegiance) to the Apple iTunes family. But I am having difficulty guessing what that might be. Given the current design, there is very little that can be done on the player side. But I wonder if there might be something to be done with iTunes or at the ITMS channel. Again, this is just speculation. But expect to see something (e.g., a new rev?) soon and expect folks like Samsung to ramp up the price pressure on flash-based players.
For more information on the subject, check out Jupiter Research’s entry on their Microsoft Monitor site. Jupiter expects a very serious push by the PlayforSure crowd. I just love it when competition makes things faster, better and cheaper!
-CyclingRoo-
-Update-
Apple stock took a pounding despite the amazing sales results. Maybe other folks are curious about the 16% revenue decline as well.

Mark Twain was right. History does rhyme. And my variant on Samuel Clemens quote is that history not only rhymes – it now riffs (or maybe it’s a cover song)! This time, I’m hearing the notes of the smart tag song once again.
For those with short memories, I’ll play a few notes. In early 2001, Microsoft announced its Hailstorm initiative as well as its Smart Tags features for Windows XP (and Office XP). I won’t go into too many details – especially since I’m not an expert on the subject. But the heart of these technologies was a coupling of web services (via XML and SOAP) and smart-tagging. The industry (i.e., the open source community and many web developers) screamed “foul.” Specifically, folks felt that it was absolutely criminal for Microsoft to “edit” content by adding tags that weren’t provided by the content author. BTW, I was one of those screaming about the “arrogance” of Microsoft acting as a content editor.
Today, we are now talking about tags once again. All of us are thrilled by Flickr, Del.icio.us and other tag-centric content modification approaches. And lots of us are thrilled by the Greasemonkey extension for Mozilla Firefox – even the staid Jon Udell.
So what’s my point? Everything old is new again. Greasemonkey is doing exactly what we screamed at Microsoft for doing. Well, sort of. Greasemonkey is different because it places content control in the customers’ hands – not a corporation’s hands. The customer must implement the scripts that would modify the content. In this regard, the ethics are quite different than the Microsoft Smart Tags proposition. But the technologies are quite similar.
And if the big content providers release their own versions of Firefox (as both Yahoo and Google are rumored to be doing), then we must watch these folks quite carefully. It would take very little work to include Greasemonkey and a bunch of scripts into a browser. And such amplified browsers would be capable of doing exactly what we screamed at Microsoft for talking about.
So the issue of content modification and ethics needs to remain a concern for the open source community – lest we engage in the same things that we scorned others for. Simon Willison has the makings of a good start on the subject. Let’s keep the discussion going!
-CyclingRoo-

Just when you thought the materials industry was starting to slow down, you run across another really cool innovation. Ecology Coatings (Akron, Ohio) has announced that DuPont will be licensing its nanotechnology coating system. I love the way Ecology Coatings refers to its products. They produce curable liquids that are 100% solids! Sounds like a marketing term, right? Right. But here are the features: fast-drying (3 seconds vs. twenty minutes), no evaporation and/or fumes, no need for solvents and/or carriers. In addition, UV curing consumes about 75% less energy than heat-based drying schemes. In short, this stuff is far more environmentally friendly than traditional industrial coatings.
The potential applications are numerous. DuPont is envisioning the product for use in automobile finishes. Other companies are considering licensing the coating as a screen to apply to other materials. For example, Nano-Tex (a competitor) uses their coatings to prevent socks from absorbing foot odor. Other applications include rain-repellant (or bullet resistant) cloth.
This stuff is pretty cool. And it’s important to note that DuPont is the company that brought us Teflon coating. They know about how to market coatings for an incredible diversity of applications. Indeed, DuPont has been a pioneer for nanotechnology on the future battlefield. I wonder just how much it will cost!
-CyclingRoo-

It is amazing to experience technology changes as they are occuring. Over the past six months, podcasting has started to take off. According to Pew Research, there are over six million podcast listeners on the Net. And there are a bunch of folks that are jazzed about the kinds of social and commercial changes that this medium will spawn.
And these millions of listeners are using lots of different pieces of software. On the Windows platforms, you have iPodder and Doppler as the principal podcatching clients. On the Mac, there are plenty of other tools including iPodderX. And these tools are very good.
But Adam Curry wasn’t happy with just good podcatching software. So he and his development team have been working on podcasting production software. On yesterday’s Daily Source Code, Adam demoed his new production software which he is dubbing “CastBlaster.” From the sounds (and sights) of the software, it looks really good. I am getting excited to try the software – whenever the beta is released.
Of course, I have no idea whether the “studio” software will be proprietary or open source. I would guess that it would be open source. After all, I am sure that he will be using existing open source software as a basis. But I do think that Adam wants to monetize this – but through the “services” angle. In December, he registered the domains for the PodShow. And recent DSC podcasts have hinted at the launch. There is a functioning web site (with little to no content) and lots of hints. I don’t know where this is going, but I suspect that Adam wants to start a “network” of podcasters. On that network, he can charge “rent” (storage space) and collect his “cut” of advertising revenue. In a way, he is building an “MTV” network all over again. But this time, the talent will be far more decentralized – and geeky.
Rick Turoczy talked about this on his “hypocritical” blog. At the same time, Christopher Carti talked about this on his Social Customer Manifesto blog. Both seem to predict big things for the venture. If buzz could kill, this would be homicidal!
-CyclingRoo-

It is amazing to experience technology changes as they are occuring. Over the past six months, podcasting has started to take off. According to Pew Research, there are over six million podcast listeners on the Net. And there are a bunch of folks that are jazzed about the kinds of social and commercial changes that this medium will spawn.

And these millions of listeners are using lots of different pieces of software. On the Windows platforms, you have iPodder and Doppler as the principal podcatching clients. On the Mac, there are plenty of other tools including iPodderX. And these tools are very good.

But Adam Curry wasn’t happy with just good podcatching software. So he and his development team have been working on podcasting production software. On yesterday’s Daily Source Code, Adam demoed his new production software which he is dubbing “CastBlaster.” From the sounds (and sights) of the software, it looks really good. I am getting excited to try the software – whenever the beta is released.

Of course, I have no idea whether the “studio” software will be proprietary or open source. I would guess that it would be open source. After all, I am sure that he will be using existing open source software as a basis. But I do think that Adam wants to monetize this – but through the “services” angle. In December, he registered the domains for the PodShow. And recent DSC podcasts have hinted at the launch. There is a functioning web site (with little to no content) and lots of hints. I don’t know where this is going, but I suspect that Adam wants to start a “network” of podcasters. On that network, he can charge “rent” (storage space) and collect his “cut” of advertising revenue. In a way, he is building an “MTV” network all over again. But this time, the talent will be far more decentralized – and geeky.

Rick Turoczy talked about this on his “hypocritical” blog. At the same time, Christopher Carti talked about this on his Social Customer Manifesto blog. Both seem to predict big things for the venture. If buzz could kill, this would be homicidal!

-CyclingRoo-

On March 23, Scoble left a cryptic note about a new Microsoft site known as Crossfader. This site is designed to promote electonic musicians and their products. Since then Silicon Beat and even MacMusic have mentioned the site. But what is it?
Some of you might suspect that it is Microsoft’s answer to the Mac music phenomenon known as GarageBand. But you’d be wrong. Crossfader is more like GarageBand.com. OK. On the surface, it looks like I’m playing with words. I’m not. GarageBand.com (the web site) existed long before Apple announced GarageBand (the software). So Apple worked out a deal to use the name. Details of the difference between the site and the software can be found at News.Com.
At the current time, Crossfader is a community site for electronic musicians to collaborate as well as educate themselves. But it is not (yet) a piece of software. Indeed, the home page for Crossfader actually lists Sony’s Sound Forge 8 on the left navigation bar. For my simple needs, the Sony product rocks! At the same time, prominent references are made to Ableton’s Live 4.0 product. While I can’t speak to Ableton’s product, I can get excited to see Microsoft mention other vendors and their products so prominently. Yet another example of the growing maturity that I am seeing from the hordes of Mordor (er, Redmond).
As of this moment, there is little of interest on the site, but things are being added at a furious pace. And given my predispositions towards sampling and mashups, I can’t wait to see who starts to join this community. Here’s hoping for a great start.
-CyclingRoo-

On March 23, Scoble left a cryptic note about a new Microsoft site known as Crossfader. This site is designed to promote electonic musicians and their products. Since then Silicon Beat and even MacMusic have mentioned the site. But what is it?

Some of you might suspect that it is Microsoft’s answer to the Mac music phenomenon known as GarageBand. But you’d be wrong. Crossfader is more like GarageBand.com. OK. On the surface, it looks like I’m playing with words. I’m not. GarageBand.com (the web site) existed long before Apple announced GarageBand (the software). So Apple worked out a deal to use the name. Details of the difference between the site and the software can be found at News.Com.

At the current time, Crossfader is a community site for electronic musicians to collaborate as well as educate themselves. But it is not (yet) a piece of software. Indeed, the home page for Crossfader actually lists Sony’s Sound Forge 8 on the left navigation bar. For my simple needs, the Sony product rocks! At the same time, prominent references are made to Ableton’s Live 4.0 product. While I can’t speak to Ableton’s product, I can get excited to see Microsoft mention other vendors and their products so prominently. Yet another example of the growing maturity that I am seeing from the hordes of Mordor (er, Redmond).

As of this moment, there is little of interest on the site, but things are being added at a furious pace. And given my predispositions towards sampling and mashups, I can’t wait to see who starts to join this community. Here’s hoping for a great start.

-CyclingRoo-

Has anyone else started seeing more popups in the Firefox browsing experience? Over the past month or so, I have seen an alarming increase in the number of pop-under ads that have appeared while using Firefox. It seems that the marketing nere-do-wells have noted that Firefox does allow plugins to launch popups in an unimpeded fashion. Consequently, a lot of ingenious marketeers have launced their nefarious payloads in seemingly inocuous Flash or Java apps. When a Firefox browser comes along, the popup is launched through an already “approved” extension.
Well, Asa Dotzler and the folks at the Mozilla foundation are working on improvements to the popup blocker. While there is little “new” code in the beta patch, it seems that the Mozilla folks saw this one coming and had a patch already in the offing (and code alredy latent in previous distros). If you are interested in the gory details, go check out Asa’s weblog. But if you are a trusting soul, you can download a signed patch from the Mozilla team.
Happy hunting!
-CyclingRoo-