In the seventies, I visited the National Bureau of Standards in Gaithersburg, Maryland. And while there, I saw my first Tokamak reactor. It was a small device – about the size of a large room. But I saw a real world example of the fantasies that I had read about for several years. So I started to get really excited.
That excitement waned. Over the decades since then, the sci-fi fantasies continued to be fueled while the real science seemed to be flagging. And the “cold fusion” idiocy didn’t help things much.
But there have been waves of breakthroughs. Each new experimental wave brought about another wave of anticipation. Today, plasma has been contained for multiple seconds. In fact, we can easily see the time when we can indefinitely sustain a usable plasma. Of course,the real trick is to get more power out of the reaction than we put into the process.
At 10:30 in the above video, Joe Scott lets us know that there is a real difference between fusion reactor claims of the past and the progress that is anticipated in the relatively near future. His conclusion is that the addition of private industry will propel fusion reactors from the university to the power plant. Given what Elon Musk and SpaceX have done to spur interplanetary expeditions, I tend to agree with Joe. And if we can just increase the competitive pressure further, we may see sustainable fusion power in our lifetimes.
In February 2018, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) would be delayed. For those who don’t follow NASA, the JWST was originally scheduled for a 4Q2018 launch. But delays in testing and integration led NASA (and the GAO) to reset the launch clock. The new launch date would be June 2019.
But last week, NASA provided another launch date: March 30, 2021. And there will be up to $1B of additional costs. Of course, this extended delay may be immensely challenging. The service life of the Ariane 5 rocket will be coming to a close in 2022. So any further delays might cause the launch date to slip past the retirement date of this launch system. If that happens, then the entire project might be faced with the need to re-engineer the delivery vehicle to fit a different flight system. In short, even further delays.
The JWST will be a jewel worth whatever investment we make. But I can’t help but feel frustrated.
As a wannabe rocket scientist and space enthusiast, I am still jazzed to see this project begin – regardless of the delays.
As a citizen, I hate the fact that we can build rockets and complex research instruments, but we can’t manage the projects that will deliver the anticipated results.
As a project/program manager, I am stunned by this project. It is one of those projects where everything that can go wrong will go wrong. And while NASA is exhausting its pre-launch alternatives, it dare not accelerate and increase the risk in the actual post-launch phase. This project must work on the first try because we can’t just go out and repair the device – like we did with Hubble.
From my vantage point, I see so many good lessons:
Don’t assume success. Plan for success – while acknowledging the potential for failure.
Plan your contingencies – and be ready to execute them when needed.
Remember that all contingencies incur real costs – both in delivery date and in real dollars.
Choose whether to minimize costs or to maximize the chance for success. Some contingencies just won’t work. So the real trick is to pick those contingencies that maximize the likelihood of achieving a successful outcome while minimizing costs. It’s a tough balancing act. But in the case of JWST, we really can’t launch without testing. That could be disastrous. We might strand a multi-billion dollar investment somewhere out past L2.
In the final analysis, we need to fish or cut bait. And since valuable exploration always incurs real risks, we need to be resolute. This won’t be like our Super Conducting Super Collider. In that case, we just moved the resources to the LHC – which was further ahead. In this case, there is no other alternative that we can bet upon. We must move forward or lose the opportunity for a generation.
BTW, let’s remind our President and Congress about its new Space Force commitment. And then let’s remind them that we – as a peaceful people – want to see our interplanetary future move forward. We’ve been resting comfortably for too long. It’s time to leave the nest once again.